A great fallacy list. My wife and I discuss them with most advertisements and news stories.

Here is how I handled The Planning Fallacy when preparing estimates for computer projects:

1. Carefully predict the time for each task
2. Add them up — get a total
3. Double it!
4. Assume no single task will match the estimate

I was usually within 10% and on one project of over 1,000 hours, we were off 8 hours.

The only failure was when my boss didn’t like my method, cut the time in half, and sent that estimate to senior management. His final number was off by about 100%.

William “Bill” Myers, Analyzes all, Programmer, retired. If you learn anything new, find enjoyment, have a new thought, then I’m successful. Photo: 1st article

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