I think about probabilities frequently, but almost always in the future. So, Propensity usually applies.
For example #1, my dentist gave me a 60% chance of success on my root canal. He was correct, but not in the way that he projected. He was not sure that he could break through an old filling. He did, was successful with two roots, but failed on the other two. Successful with three tasks, failed with two tasks, for a completion rate of 60%. Not the same 60% that he was talking about in the beginning.
For example #2, my wife is a Type 1 diabetic. There is a 100% probability that she will pass out from low blood sugar. Based on 18 years of experience, 99% likelihood within the next two weeks. The exact time is random.